The current SAFRR scenario is an earthquake sequence triggered by a Mw 7.05 earthquake on the Hayward fault. California has not experienced a large earthquake since the invention of the World Wide Web. Since then, most economic, cultural, and personal elements of society have grown entwined with the Internet. What will happen to an Internet-dependent society when a large earthquake occurs? How do tangible lifelines—roads, power, water, communication, etc.—interact in damage and restoration, and how do they interact with the online world of commerce, social media, and news? How long will it take to restore the physical and virtual lifelines and the services that use them? What happens to society in the mean time? How will aftershocks affect recovery? In 2014-2015, SAFRR will explore these questions through the HayWired disaster scenario. It builds on past studies of a Hayward Fault earthquake and previous scenario development procedures in several ways. It will explore how tools of decision analysis such as influence diagrams can be used for risk analysis, disaster planning, response and recovery. A system-of-systems approach will be used to quantify damage and recovery of interdependent physical lifelines. And HayWired will explore the implications of modern building code philosophy for the viability of a metropolis.
USGS Western Geographic Science Center Contributions
For the HayWired earthquake scenario, WGSC coordinated the extension of the scenario ShakeMap to 16 county study region of FEMA's current Bay Area plan, analyses of ground failure from the mainshock, an aftershock sequence and forecasts, and HAZUS damage assessments with the California Geological survey, USGS scientists, and HAZUS experts. We will collaborate with economic modelers to analyze the economic consequences to the Bay Area and beyond. WGSC will manage contracts for recovery implications, policy interpretations, and evaluation of the desired outcomes from the project.
(above) HayWired aftershock by days after the main shock
(left) Liquefaction probability for greater Oakland area for M7.05 Hayward fault earthquakse and 1.5 meter water depth