Multiple Hazards Demonstration Project: Recovery and Economic Consequences

The multiple hazard demonstration project includes development of natural hazard scenarios that are built from a scientific foundation and integrated analyses across the natural sciences, engineering, and social sciences, to describe the physical, social, and economic consequences of a large plausible natural hazard in southern California. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario was a successful execution of interdisciplinary research and coordination with unprecedented Stakeholder involvement. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake scenario provided the foundational materials for the California Golden Guardian 2008 emergency response and recovery exercises and the ShakeOut drill involving over 5,000 emergency responders and disaster recovery agents, and approximately 5.5 million citizens, respectively. Western region geography contributed spatial, quantitative, and integrated analyses, and reports on the following topics: highway-bridge damage and traffic and commuter impacts; port operation and lifeline (power, water, gas) service disruption; regional economic impact; economic resilience; disaster recovery; two community focus studies; and lessons learned about scenario development and delivery. The recovery and economic impact tasks involved coordinating with Rocky Mountain geography, accessing expert opinion, managing contracts for highway-bridge and regional economic modeling, conducting workshops, and cooperating with exercise planners. Western Region geography continues to participate in a similar capacity in a subsequent multiple hazard scenario -- a California winter Storm scenario due in 2010.

Figure 1. Building the ShakeOut earthquake from an earth science foundation with interdisciplinary research. Gray boxes highlight western region geography’s contribution integrating input from Rocky Mountain Geography

Figure 2.Economic Impacts: Replacement costs of structures and contents ($122.7 billion) and business interruption losses ($96.2 billion)

Publications and Websites:

Champion, Richard and Anne Wein. 2008. ShakeOut Scenario Appendix I: Characterizing a Regional Economy–Bureau of Labor Statistics Location Quotients for Industrial Sectors in Southern California, USGS Open File Report 2008-1150, CGS Preliminary Report 25I, ftp://ftp.consrv.ca.gov/pub/dmg/rgmp/ShakeOut/Final%20Appendices/CGS%20PR%2025%20AppendixI.pdf

Jones , Lucile M., Richard Bernknopf, Dale Cox, James Goltz, Kenneth Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Suzanne Perry, Daniel Ponti, Keith Porter, Michael Reichle, Hope Seligson, Kimberley Shoaf, Jerry Treiman, and Anne Wein. 2008. The ShakeOut Scenario, U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 2008-1150, California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25, version 1.0, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/

Perry, Suzanne, Cox, Dale, Jones, Lucile, Bernknopf, Richard, Goltz, James, Hudnut, Kenneth, Mileti, Dennis, Ponti, Daniel, Porter, Keith, Reichle, Michael, Seligson, Hope, Shoaf, Kimberley, Treiman, Jerry, and Wein, Anne, 2008, The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario; a story that southern Californians are writing: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1324 and California Geological Survey Special Report 207, 16 p. [http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/].

Sherrouse, Benson C. and David J. Hester. 2008 Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Intraregional Commuter, Worker, and Earnings Flow Analysis. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1254/. This publication is online only.

Sherrouse, Benson C. and David J. Hester. 2008. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995–2000 and 2001–2010, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1212/. This publication is online only.

Sherrouse, Benson C., David J. Hester, and Anne M. Wein. 2008. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake, U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report, OFR 2008-1211. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1211/. This publication is online only.

Sherrouse, Benson C., David J. Hester, and Anne M. Wein, 2008. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake, U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report, OFR 2008-1222, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1222/. This publication is online only

Wein, Anne and Richard Bernknopf. 2007. Interdisciplinary approaches to regional risk reduction decision-making, MODSIM proceedings 2007, http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim07/papers/26_s32/Interdeciplinery_s32_Wein_.pdf

Papers in process

Economic Analysis Appendix by Adam Rose and Dan Wei (available on request)

ShakeOut Scenario Recovery by Anne Wein, Laurie Johnson, Richard Bernknopf, and Richard Champion (in process)

Economic Resilience Lessons from the ShakeOut Scenario by Adam Rose and Anne Wein (in process)

Building Earthquake Scenarios: a View from the End or the Top by Anne Wein

Contracted Report

Werner, Stuart D., Sungbin Cho, and Ronald Eguchi. 2008. Analysis of Risk to Southern California Highway System, report for USGS ShakeOut Sceanrio, Seismic Systems & Engineering Consultants, Oakland, CA. http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/scenario08

Website

www.shakeout.org